China will become the world’s largest economy in 2030, overtaking the US, new research from HSBC states.
The bank has looked at 75 economies in developing, emerging and frontier markets to make long-term projections of their growth potential and changes in global rankings. The bank’s research has also found that emerging economies will account for roughly 50% of global GDP by 2030 – a seismic shift from half of that in 2000.
China will continue to be the single biggest contributor to global growth but another five Asian economies will be among the world’s six fastest-growing economies – Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Pakistan and Vietnam.
However, by 2030, Africa will have more working-age people than China. Its working-age population is set to grow by more than 2.5% a year for the next decade while Europe’s falls by 0.5% annually.
Growth in both emerging and developing markets between now and 2030 will slow. Emerging economies are projected to grow by 4.4% a year compared to 4.7% in the period since 2010, while developed countries grow by 1.5%, compared with 1.7% since 2010.
India and China, by 2030, will account for 35% of the global population and nearly 25% of the world’s working-age populace will be elsewhere in Asia. However, the biggest regional mover will be Africa, where young, fast-growing populations will mean that continent has more people aged 16 to 64 than China.