Calling witnesses – including former national security adviser John Bolton – to President Trump’s impeachment trial is likely to cause short-term volatility in financial markets.
This is the warning from Tom Elliott, International Investment Strategist at deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and services organizations.
It comes as the impeachment trial reaches a critical stage, with seemingly growing support to have witnesses called to the Senate.
Elliott comments: “It was assumed that Trump’s impeachment trial would be done and dusted this week. However, in light of revelations from former national security adviser John Bolton’s draft book manuscript that Trump confirmed to him U.S. security support to Ukraine was based on the condition of investigations into political opponents, the conclusion and timings are now less certain due to the increasing calls for witnesses.
“At least two Republican senators are indicating that they are in favor of wanting to hear from witnesses, including Bolton.”
He continues: “Financial markets don’t want a drawn-out impeachment trial. They want certainty, especially as investors are already nervous because of the Coronavirus outbreak.
“Some sectors are more at risk of a longer impeachment trial – and damage to President Trump – than others. Sectors that would suffer from regulation by Democrats, notably pharma, energy and banks want him to win again.”
Elliott concludes: “Four Republican senators need to agree to call Bolton. If they do, they are likely to demand the Bidens – both father and son – appear also. This will make the impeachment trial much longer. The longer the process, the more volatility will occur in global financial markets. Expect banks, pharma and energy to lead this market volatility if Bolton is called by the Senate.”