A week that changed the economic outlook

How life can change in a matter of days. On Friday, before US president Donald Trump gave the green light for strikes on Iran, chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spring statement no doubt contained reassurances of “stability” and that “Labour’s plan is working”.

However, when she uttered those same defiant words in the House of Commons on Tuesday, they were weighed down by the reality of the seismic wave of uncertainty rippling out from the Middle East.

After the chancellor delivered her address, there was the customary rebuke from the opposition parties. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) then revealed its economic forecasts for the next five years.

Amid the “keep calm and carry on” posturing from Reeves, the UK’s official forecaster revealed that growth in 2026 is expected to be 1.1 per cent, down from 1.6 per cent. However, 2027 and 2028’s growth expectations have risen from 1.5 per cent to 1.6 per cent. These revisions were prepared before the weekend's conflict escalation.

Talking about the forecast changes in the executive summary of its forecast, the OBR said: “Conflict in the Middle East, which escalated as we were finalising this document, could have very significant impacts on the global and UK economies. The past two decades have shown that, more than these known risks, it is wholly unanticipated shocks that can have the most significant negative effects.”

The tickers of the FTSE100 were bathed in a deep red, ending Tuesday down 2.6 per cent as the danger of energy spikes began to come into view. Some of the natural gas price graphs are rather eye-watering, such as the one below from the Financial Times.

While it’s too early to predict the effect of these rises, there’s no doubt that the amalgamation of Russia’s war with Ukraine and the US’s latest endeavour in the Middle East will threaten to swallow up these revisions from the OBR, as well as hopes of an interest rate cut later in the month.

From the forecaster to the stats office we go as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed this week that the total value of foreign takeovers of British companies hit a four-year high in the final quarter of 2025. Foreign acquisitions rose to £27.4bn from £7.6bn in the third quarter, thanks to Doordash’s purchase of Deliveroo and American PE firm KKR’s takeover of instrument specialist Spectris.

2026 is already off to a bumper year, according to data from the London Stock Exchange. While the total number of deals is down year-on-year, almost £68bn worth of deals were agreed in the first two months of the year. This marks a 26-year high.

We highlighted London’s efforts to regain its crown as the global hub for IPOs late last year, but is enough being done by Number 11 to ease the looming risk of economic turmoil threatening to hit the UK’s forgotten middle? The government’s reassurances that it has the right economic plan could be dramatically put to the test in the coming months…

Guess the company

• It has its roots in Rosettenville, South Africa
• In 1992, it opened its first UK locations in Ealing and Earls Court
• It has locations on five continents worldwide
• It honours a Portuguese heritage and has a cheeky reputation

You'll find the answer at the bottom of this page

What happened this week?

1. The UK is launching a state-backed research lab for “blue-sky” work in AI, as part of a broader push to leverage Britain’s research base and overseas scientists, and gain greater technological autonomy from the US. The government is committing £40m initially to establish the new body that will focus on fundamental AI research that can lead to breakthroughs in science, healthcare and transport.

2. Unemployment in the UK is set to peak this year at a higher rate than previously estimated, with a “worrying” increase in young people being out of work. The OBR said unemployment will peak at 5.3 per cent this year, up from its previous forecast in November of 4.9 per cent.

3. US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the US was “likely” to implement a 15 per cent global tariff this week, following conflicting statements from President Donald Trump about the rate. The new tariff is intended to replace the sweeping global import taxes Trump imposed last year but were recently struck down by the Supreme Court.

4. BrewDog has been sold to the US cannabis and drinks firm Tilray for £33m. The deal for the Scottish self-styled “punk”, which once claimed a valuation north of £2bn, will cost nearly 500 jobs and leave legions of the company’s early-stage crowdfunders empty-handed. Tilray agreed a deal to buy BrewDog’s brand, intellectual property, UK brewing operations and 11 “strategic” bars in the UK and Ireland.

5. The chairman of Asda has reaffirmed his determination to appoint the supermarket’s next chief executive from within its existing ranks, arguing that the business is too complex and culturally distinct to be run by an outsider. Allan Leighton, who returned to Asda as executive chairman in November 2024, said he remained committed to promoting from within the current crop of executives once he was satisfied the grocer was firmly back on track.

Weekend reading

👑 FlightStory: How Diary of a CEO became a media empire

Our very own Dougal Shaw sat down with the 'sisters' behind FlightStory, the media company behind Steven Bartlett's juggernaut podcast Diary of a CEO. This fascinating conversation with the company's CEO Georgie Holt and CRO Christiana Brenton covers the strategy behind scaling Diary of a CEO, the power of high-trust co-founder partnerships and much more.

🏎️ Formula 1’s pivotal year

The new F1 season starts in Australia this weekend. As old fans pore over the new regulations and new fans watch in confusion because Brad Pitt isn't on the grid, the Financial Times has done a deep dive into its next phase of growth and the eye-watering amount of money surrounding it.

And finally

An accountancy firm has analysed every business that's been registered on Companies House in the past decade to reveal the most popular weird and wonderful words appearing in business names. It’s an interesting snapshot of British business. There are around 5 million businesses registered on Companies House.

As you might expect, pretty boring words appear quite often:

• Services – 253,230 mentions
• Management – 158,647 mentions
• Group – 120, 826 mentions
• Solutions – 119,646 mentions
• Holdings – 108,034 mentions

Certain business-y words have moved ‘up the charts’ in the past decade:

• Labs – 80 in 2015 to 1,096 in 2025 (1,270% increase)
• Prime – 134 in 2015 to 1,179 in 2025 (780% increase)
• Innovations – 88 in 2015 to 615 in 2025 (599% increase)
• Elite – 227 in 2015 to 1,284 in 2025 (466% increase)
• Global – 1,174 in 2015 to 6,066 in 2025 (417% increase)

But there are quite a few more surprising words that get picked often too!

• Dog – 3,380 mentions
• Cat – 1,404 mentions
• Foot – 794 mentions
• Banana – 289 mentions
• Soup – 162 mentions
• Woof – 131 mentions
• Toilet – 72 mentions
• Elbow – 66 mentions
• Leg – 62 mentions
• ‘LOL’ – 32 mentions
• Eyebrow – 17 mentions
• ‘LMAO’ – 1 mention

Interestingly, the data reveals how many British companies have mimicked companies such as Apple, Amazon and Tesla, including those in their business names in the past decade. Maybe to help with online search optimisation?

The full research from The Accountancy Partnership is available here.

The answer to our question is Nando's.