British Land: How to make the right call when the data is unclear

Strategy rarely plays out in straight lines. For Simon Carter, CEO of British Land, some of the most defining decisions have come at moments of maximum uncertainty, when the data is incomplete, sentiment is volatile and the pressure to act is high.

Take the question that dominated the post-pandemic period: was the office finished? British Land took a contrarian position, doubling down on office space when others were retreating. It was not, Carter admits, a comfortable call.

“It would be easy to say it was a straightforward decision, but it wasn’t, we had a lot of angst around it,” he says. What cut through the noise was proximity to customers. Carter and his team spoke directly to business leaders and uncovered a gap between public narrative and private reality.

“A lot of them wanted their people back in the offices,” he explains, driven by the need for “innovation” and “chance encounters”. The insight shaped a clear conviction: “There’s far more energy in the room than there is on Zoom.”

That focus on real-world behaviour over headline opinion proved decisive. Today, the return to office has been stronger than many expected, with Carter noting the “direction of travel” moving from two days in the office towards three or four.

It is a reminder that leadership often involves reading between the lines and having the resilience to hold a position while evidence builds. The same principle applies to how British Land thinks about demand and supply.

Carter describes a classic imbalance emerging in London: strong demand for high-quality space alongside constrained supply. The result is predictable but powerful, upward pressure on rents and a premium on the best assets. It reflects a broader lesson: markets reward those who anticipate structural gaps early and position accordingly.

Yet conviction alone is not enough. Carter is equally clear about the need for flexibility. “You’ve got to be flexible. If they’re doing something that is different from your expectation, you need to change your direction of travel.”

The challenge lies in knowing when to hold steady and when to pivot. His rule of thumb is simple: watch for signals. “If a trickle turns into a bit of a stream and then a cascade, you’ve got to be prepared to change direction.”

This balance between conviction and adaptability is underpinned by data but not data alone. Carter draws on experience from derivatives trading, where decisions must be made quickly and imperfectly. “You only need to be right 51% of the time to make a profit,” he says.

That mindset encourages momentum over paralysis, paired with a willingness to learn from mistakes. Those mistakes matter. Carter reflects candidly on a misstep in logistics, where timing proved off despite strong long-term fundamentals.

The lesson was clear: “Structural is important, but ultimately all markets are cyclical.” Even the most compelling trends can turn if pricing stretches or customer behaviour shifts. Across the business, this emphasis on listening (to customers, to data and to early signals) runs deep. It shaped British Land’s move back into retail parks, where changing economics and customer demand created opportunity despite negative sentiment. It also informs day-to-day leadership.

Carter prioritises regular customer interaction because “you always just pick up a little bit of insight that you didn’t have beforehand.”

There is, however, a final counterintuitive insight. In certain moments, the best decision is no decision at all. Carter refers to this as “glorious inactivity”, resisting the urge to act during periods of market dislocation and instead focusing on where things will be in “four or five years’ time.”

In an environment defined by volatility, that blend of patience, decisiveness and customer focus is what ultimately separates progress from noise.